I believe it was you Nick who made the association, but there are so many parallels between the British/French seizure of the Suez Canal and the Suez crisis and this present iteration across the water in the Strait of Hormuz. That became an end of empire moment which accelerated the end of "empires upon which the sun never sets" and reading your excellent analysis it does feel the acceleration of the end of American hegemony is upon us.
Keep up the great work. Have loved reading your writings and insights for over 20 years.
The joke here is… Iran and Ukraine share the same need for a regime change, that is the US admin need to change in order for the two diversely different country to move forward, one to strike a diplomatic agreement to end the war, remove foreign trade restraints, the other to physically transform its social economic structure to be able to recapture all its territory since its almost impossible to initiate a friendly regime change in Russia, given its complex strong man pyramid that operates rather similar to Iran. Both countries (everyone else on earth as well) are looking at the mid terms election of the US, any sane members of the Iranian leadership structure knows that that it is vital to drag on and create as much social-economic pain over the consumer base economy of the US, and most of the world, in order to force the voters in the US to change their minds and vote for regime change. Iran have strategically throttled the global economy - as pointed out in this article, its not only oil but many more… one does not just pull 1/3 of the global production of helium out of no where, and how to replace the fertilizers? It’s not as if one could pull it out from thin air, while every government work hard to keep clam and carry one, deploying censorship, pressure on the industrial sectors to hide the scale of the issues, strain and crack are emerging, Asia is struggle with a fuel crisis, the rebels in Sudan collapsed, the EU airports warn of weeks to running out of fuel (aviation fuel production in the EU plummeted…) Iran will need to hold the levers necessary to trigger that irreversible path towards a global recession, time is on their side, another 10,20,30 days of disruption would speed up the global recession, to a certain point even if one is to assume that magically the whole strait of Hormuz unblocked and 140 ships transit per day reached in 24 hours, it would take months to reverse the disruption, not to mention that magical thinking is something only djt would think is possible, the target of the Iranians is to throttle the world till June-July, time is on their side, and once djt is cornered into making the ground troop deployment, drafting in the US, that would signed either the end of the US democracy or the end of his regime in Washington DC.. which either way work for the Iranian regime.
Thanks Nick. As always an insightful and thorough article.
Excellent upsum. Thank you
I believe it was you Nick who made the association, but there are so many parallels between the British/French seizure of the Suez Canal and the Suez crisis and this present iteration across the water in the Strait of Hormuz. That became an end of empire moment which accelerated the end of "empires upon which the sun never sets" and reading your excellent analysis it does feel the acceleration of the end of American hegemony is upon us.
Keep up the great work. Have loved reading your writings and insights for over 20 years.
Excellent as always.
Concise and an excellent summary of what has transpired so far.
The joke here is… Iran and Ukraine share the same need for a regime change, that is the US admin need to change in order for the two diversely different country to move forward, one to strike a diplomatic agreement to end the war, remove foreign trade restraints, the other to physically transform its social economic structure to be able to recapture all its territory since its almost impossible to initiate a friendly regime change in Russia, given its complex strong man pyramid that operates rather similar to Iran. Both countries (everyone else on earth as well) are looking at the mid terms election of the US, any sane members of the Iranian leadership structure knows that that it is vital to drag on and create as much social-economic pain over the consumer base economy of the US, and most of the world, in order to force the voters in the US to change their minds and vote for regime change. Iran have strategically throttled the global economy - as pointed out in this article, its not only oil but many more… one does not just pull 1/3 of the global production of helium out of no where, and how to replace the fertilizers? It’s not as if one could pull it out from thin air, while every government work hard to keep clam and carry one, deploying censorship, pressure on the industrial sectors to hide the scale of the issues, strain and crack are emerging, Asia is struggle with a fuel crisis, the rebels in Sudan collapsed, the EU airports warn of weeks to running out of fuel (aviation fuel production in the EU plummeted…) Iran will need to hold the levers necessary to trigger that irreversible path towards a global recession, time is on their side, another 10,20,30 days of disruption would speed up the global recession, to a certain point even if one is to assume that magically the whole strait of Hormuz unblocked and 140 ships transit per day reached in 24 hours, it would take months to reverse the disruption, not to mention that magical thinking is something only djt would think is possible, the target of the Iranians is to throttle the world till June-July, time is on their side, and once djt is cornered into making the ground troop deployment, drafting in the US, that would signed either the end of the US democracy or the end of his regime in Washington DC.. which either way work for the Iranian regime.